A group of civilian "decoders" in California are doggedly analysing North Korean propaganda to shed light on its nuclear ambitions — and it does not make easy reading for the US.
In a video for The Wall Street Journal, researchers at Middlebury Institute's Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) said Pyongyang's missile arsenal is more sophisticated than people might think.
"Everybody thinks they're a joke, like they're some kind of incompetent buffoons,"Jeffrey Lewis, the programme director, said in Thursday's video. "We were living in this parallel universe where we kept going, 'but they're not buffoons.'"
North Korea shocked the world when it successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on July 4 this year, which experts said had the capability to reach Alaska.
CNS researchers, however, said they "weren't surprised." Propaganda footage of another missile that was introduced this May, the Hwasong-12, had already indicated that North Korea had all the parts needed to build an ICBM, Lewis said.
"When we looked at the 12, we were like, 'Holy crap, that is a pathway to an ICBM,'" he told the Journal.
Here's the WSJ video:
Lewis and his team also deduced, from other propaganda footage, that Pyongyang had the capability to successfully launch a nuclear strike on US cities like New York or Los Angeles.
One recent video showed a missile aircraft with a light airframe, which would be able to carry a heavy nuclear warhead all the way to the US continent.
Earlier this year, Pyongyang vowed to strike "the heart of the US" if American officials attacked the country's leader, Kim Jong Un.
Lewis said he hopes his work will provide more clarity into North Korea's nuclear ambitions and the US's foreign policy options, referencing the lack of factual information in public debate surrounding the Iraq war in 2003.
Then-President George W. Bush and then-British Prime Minister Tony Blair sent hundreds of thousands of troops into Iraq, alleging that Saddam Hussein's regime had stockpiled weapons of mass destruction. Intelligence officials have since said that Hussein had no such arsenal.
According to Lewis, the US government is wrong to insist on forcing North Korea to denuclearise. He believes the US's best shot at containing the North Korea is to make it limit its nuclear programme, rather than eliminate its weapons altogether.
US intelligence agencies also said "no amount of pressure"could stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons, the Senate heard last month. He added that even if the US assassinates Kim, the supreme leader's followers could still attack the US.
Some of Pyongyang's missiles are already armed with nuclear weapons, and the country has been practising missile launches over South Korea and Japan, Lewis said. Both those countrieshave warned of more activity from the North in mid-October.
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