North Korea's ruling Workers' Party held its Eighth Party Congress earlier this month, followed by a big military parade — the second one since October.
According to Duyeon Kim, a Seoul-based fellow with the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, the series of well-publicized events were meant to project resilience at a time when North Korea is reeling from a "triple whammy" of economic sanctions, natural disasters, and COVID-19.
Kim joined WPR's Elliot Waldman on the Trend Lines podcast this week to discuss the big takeaways from the party congress.
The following is a partial transcript of the interview. It has been lightly edited for clarity.
World Politics Review: Big confabs like the Eighth Party Congress are pretty rare in North Korea, so they're obviously closely watched by analysts like yourself. Let me start by asking what your big picture takeaways were from this most recent event.
Duyeon Kim: I'd like to start out with an important piece of context to understand these party congresses. To me, this was another reminder that we should not overestimate or underestimate what Kim Jong Un says in these meetings.
We should not over-interpret everything Kim says and take it as the Holy Bible — because there is some fluff in what he says — but they still serve as useful data points for people like me, to confirm our expectations and suspicions and help us further understand Pyongyang. And so not everything is framed in the context of America. His main audience for these party congresses is the North Korean people, the North Korean elite — the officials that are helping to run the show.
The main purpose of these party congresses is to make decisions on party direction and policies, and to reorganize or reshuffle the party's leadership. I know that's less interesting in the broad scheme of things when it comes to foreign policy, but that still is an important point. So, their main audience is North Koreans, but with that said, there are clues as to Kim's thinking on his direction with the US and South Korea, as well as clues as to what types of weapons he wants to eventually make.
His "report," as they call them — it's basically his remarks or a statement — has three general audiences. One is, again, the North Korean people. The other is the United States, and the third is South Korea. There are three messages, and the North Korean audience is of course the biggest. But there's still a message for the US and South Korea to tune in to.
WPR: So in this particular instance, what was the message to the North Korean domestic audience?
Kim: The main message was all about the economy, and that's nothing new. We've heard about this before, and we were expecting him to roll out with a five-year economic development plan. This party congress's message was even more important to the North Korean people because they've been going through very difficult economic times.
They've been hit with what we call a "triple whammy." Before, it's been international economic sanctions and natural disasters, like typhoons. They always complained about the sanctions, but now I would argue that the coronavirus pandemic is perhaps the biggest so-called sanction. North Korea has forced itself into isolation by essentially shutting down its border with China and cutting off nearly all trade with China — its biggest benefactor and lifeline for its economy — because they're so afraid of contracting the virus.
They officially say they have no COVID cases, and of course that's very hard to believe. But that just shows how the virus is the biggest threat to North Korea's survival, more so than American nuclear weapons or America's so-called hostile policy that North Korea always complaints about. And so, this party congress really zeroed in on North Korea's fundamental principle of what's called juche, or self-reliance.
The message was, "the North Koreans and North Korea have to thrive and prosper without relying on external help. It always has to come from North Koreans and by North Koreans." That was his main message — that they need to overcome their economic hardships.
WPR: North Korea just had a big military parade last fall for the 75th anniversary of the ruling party's founding. And now, they had this party congress, and then another military parade on the heels of it. I wonder if there's a significance to doing so many big flashy gatherings and parades in short succession at a time when the country is struggling so much economically.
Kim: That's a really good point and question. I do see a correlation there. Typically, we have seen that North Korea likes to show strength when it feels weak. Clearly, they're going through one of their weakest moments economically, and Kim Jong Un has already admitted that his economic policies have failed.
This party congress's report also essentially recognizes and acknowledges that their economic policy has failed. So in that sense, I interpret these military parades and boasting about all this hardware and high-tech weaponry in Kim's report — I mean, they're probably mockups — as basically laying out an extravagant wish list of what types of high-tech weapons and nuclear weapons he wants to make.
I think that just shows that Kim feels weak, and he needs to tell the North Korean audience, "Yes, we're going through economic hardships, but don't worry, we are still strong and mighty. The US can't touch us because we have all this armor and military hardware, so you don't have anything to worry about on that front. I've got that covered. You just focus on helping bring back this economy." I read it in that sense.
But the other audience is the United States, of course. I think here, one of the messages he's trying to send to the US is, "If you don't give me what I want in terms of how we improve our relationship, then I'm really going to go down this path of developing all these fancy weapons."
I'll very briefly list the names of the types of weapons he wants to make. They're things like missiles that have multiple reentry vehicles, things like solid propellant, ICBMs tactical nuclear weapons — all these fancy words — military reconnaissance, satellites and unmanned aerial systems.
WPR: Hypersonic glide vehicles, I think he mentioned too, right?
Kim: Exactly. And so there's a lot that they don't even have yet. But this is where some of the fluff comes, right? He boasts about them and a lot of the capability he does not have, but at the same time, I think they're still useful signals and indicators that that's where he eventually wants to go.
He eventually wants to achieve these types of weapons. And to me, in terms of the military side, most of us are all focused on the long range — the ICBM — that can hit the US mainland. But they've also got other weapons such as short-range missiles that are also just as destructive and just as concerning.
These short-range missiles he boasted about wanting to develop are called tactical nuclear weapons. These are shorter range and they're used for conflict, for use in the battlefield. And the battlefield would be the Korean peninsula. Basically, these are missiles that can target and attack South Korea, and Americans living in South Korea. That was something that stood out for me in terms of his wish list. It's both a threat to South Korea, but it's also saying, "We are going to refine all these weapons that we can use in war time."
And he's also talking about weapons that he would like to use in retaliation. For example, hypothetically — and it's difficult to imagine — if the US initiated a conflict, North Korea is basically saying, "We've got all these weapons that can retaliate against that."
WPR: One of the things that's been interesting for me to observe throughout these recent public appearances by Kim has been to see him so emotional and so contrite. Really just almost maudlin in the amount of raw emotion that he's displaying, like tearing up at that military parade last year, apologizing for not being able to deliver these economic gains. What do you make of that? Is that a direct response to the current circumstances of the country? Or is this him trying to kind of carve out his own leadership style distinct from his father and his grandfather?
Kim: I think he's been trying to carve out a leadership style that's very different from his father. His father was seen as a tyrant. But his grandfather supposedly had this image of being benevolent, of being loved by everybody in North Korea. I think that's what he's aiming for — to try to emulate his grandfather — and maybe even do a better job.
I know it might seem odd seeing the North Korean leader crying when we all think he doesn't want to show his weakness. It sounds counterintuitive, but my reading of that display was that it was his attempt to elicit not only sympathy, but also more loyalty and a sense of responsibility.
So, if your big boss is feeling sorry and is crying, then everybody under him has to feel even more sorry and feel more responsible because it's their fault. They feel guilty because they caused their leader to cry. I read it as his way of trying to elicit more hard work and perhaps even to guilt trip everybody. Perhaps it's another way for him to show his more human side as well. And just because he shows a human side doesn't mean that he's showing weakness, necessarily, in their way of thinking.
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