- North Korea leader Kim Jong Un's reappearance this month allays for now concerns about contested succession.
- But Kim's reemergence and continued rule mean that North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles are still cause for worry.
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When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un mysteriously disappeared from public view for three weeks last month, triggering widespread rumors about his health, many international observers speculated about what could come next.
His possible demise might lead to a contested succession that sparked domestic instability and the proliferation of North Korea's stockpiles of nuclear weapons and fissile material. Kim's reemergence on May 2, at the opening of a fertilizer plant in the city of Sunchon, has taken succession concerns off the table for now. But it is time to worry once again about North Korea's development of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs under Kim's continued rule.
During a marathon New Year's Eve speech at the fifth party plenum of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea last December, Kim threatened to unveil a "new strategic weapon" and floated the possibility of returning to tests of long-range ballistic missiles, which Pyongyang has refrained from since November 2017.
His aggressive speech marked a deadline that Kim had set in April 2019 for the US to agree to substantial concessions in its negotiations with North Korea, primarily the lifting of economic sanctions.
But a single day of working-level talks in Stockholm last October broke down without any progress. In November, Deputy Secretary of State Steven Biegun, who was then serving as the Trump administration's special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, publicly called Kim's end-of-year deadline an "artificial" one that the North Koreans had "set upon themselves." He invited Pyongyang to return to negotiations.
In his speech at the party plenum, Kim essentially refused Biegun's offer, prioritizing economic self-reliance in the absence of prospects for easing tough international sanctions. He added that North Korea would pursue military modernization to counter the perceived "hostile policy" of the US, which Kim sees as unlikely to change despite his warm personal relationship with Trump.
For now, the coronavirus pandemic and the upcoming US presidential election have forced Kim and Trump to prioritize domestic matters, mitigating the near-term likelihood of conflict. But North Korea has also ramped up its testing of conventional military weapons in recent months, and it is likely to continue developing its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Pyongyang tested a variety of short-range missile systems on at least five occasions in April, and March was the busiest single month for North Korean missile launches in the country's history. Recent tests included a short-range ballistic missile similar in size to the US MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System, with a range of roughly 250 miles, and large-scale multiple rocket launchers.
When deployed, these systems would add to the North's extensive artillery capabilities and ensure that US and South Korean command centers south of Seoul remain vulnerable to a conventional attack. North Korea's short-range testing of ballistic missiles violates United Nations Security Council resolutions, but Trump has dismissed concerns over these tests in the past, implying he may only respond more firmly to a longer-range missile test capable of striking the US.
The testing of large multiple rocket launchers aligns with North Korea's aim to extend its strike range deep enough into South Korea to target the consolidated US base at Camp Humphreys, 40 miles south of Seoul, and the South Korean F-35 fighter jets stationed at Cheongju Air Base, in central South Korea. Pyongyang's recent tests also appear focused on improving its ability to precisely and simultaneously deliver multiple projectiles to many different targets.
The recent tests are also significant for their focus on short-range solid fuel missiles, which have potential applications for the future development of solid fuel medium-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
Solid fuel missiles can be stored more safely and launched more quickly, with less advance warning, than North Korea's current liquid fuel versions. As a result, Pyongyang could be tempted to soon move to testing of longer-range solid fuel missiles.
Kim's visit to the Sunchon fertilizer plant reflected his plans for dual military and economic development, as outlined at last December's party plenum. He visited the construction site for the plant in January, shortly after his plenum speech, and it was telling that his first public appearance this month after being out of sight for weeks was to attend the plant's opening ceremony. It signified North Korea's renewed commitment to independent economic development. Fertilizer is an important agricultural input, and May is generally the beginning of the planting season in North Korea.
More ominously, the visit is a significant sign of support for North Korea's nuclear program. A recent report by Margaret Croy of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute showed that North Korea's phosphatic fertilizer production process allows the potential dual-use extraction of uranium. Kim's appearance at the new plant will strengthen North Korea's chemical industry and boost agricultural productivity, while adding a possible additional pathway for expansion of fuel production for its nuclear arsenal.
It ultimately represents North Korea returning to its policy of simultaneous military and economic development, known as byungjin, which Kim originally adopted in 2013, shortly after coming to power. He had signaled in 2018 that he would make economic development the nation's top priority, but now appears to have reversed course.
Despite North Korea's continued advances in its weapons systems, the coronavirus pandemic keeps the immediate risk of a military confrontation with the US and its allies in the region at bay. But the public health crisis has also turned the focus of leaders in Pyongyang and Washington inward, reducing the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough.
North Korea continues to officially report no cases of the virus, but there are uncorroborated reports of virus-caused deaths in the country, including in the military. The top US military commander in South Korea, Robert Abrams, stated last month that the North Korean military was on "lockdown" for 30 days in February and early March due to COVID-19, and only resumed its activities afterward.
The pandemic has negatively affected force readiness of the US and South Korean militaries, too. The early spread of COVID-19 to South Korea resulted in the postponement of the spring military exercises between the US and South Korea that North Korea has routinely objected to.
The trajectory of North Korea's nuclear and economic development is clear, and with it the chances of more negotiations with the US on denuclearization. Kim has yet to test his promised "new strategic weapon," but if he does, it appears less likely to be a game changer than further affirmation that leader-level diplomacy has run its course and that the nuclear gap between the United States and North Korea remains unbridgeable.
Kim's reappearance only underscores that Pyongyang is on track to continue expanding its military, making it an even bigger source of instability.
Scott A. Snyder is senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "South Korea at the Crossroads: Autonomy and Alliance in an Era of Rival Powers."
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