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High-level North Korean defector: 'Desperate' Kim Jong Un would use nukes if threatened

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Thae Yong Ho Lester Holt NBC defector

One of the highest-ranking members of the North Korean regime to defect has seemed to confirm the West's greatest fears — that the Kim regime would use nuclear weapons at the first sign of an imminent threat.

In an interview with NBC's Lester Holt, Thae Yong Ho, the former North Korean deputy ambassador to Britain, said Kim Jong Un was "desperate in maintaining his rule by relying on his [development of] nuclear weapons and ICBM," referring to an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit the US.

Thae added that once Kim "sees that there is any kind of sign of a tank or an imminent threat from America, then he would use his nuclear weapons with ICBM."

While North Korea does not yet have an ICBM that could realistically reach the US, Thae's statement comes as the US has openly mulled the prospect of military action against the country, and North Korea experts unanimously tell Business Insider that the nation's nuclear and missile programs have increased in speed and scope, with the country working toward a finished ICBM.

In an interview published in the Financial Times on Sunday, US President Donald Trump looked to China to mitigate the burgeoning crisis between North Korea and South Korea, Japan, and the US, saying "China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won't," adding, "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will."

kim jong un

While experts conclude that the US has the means to unilaterally decapitate the Kim regime, the operation if carried out today would most likely provoke a counterattack with conventional artillery and, as Thae suggested, nuclear strikes. South Korea and Japan would be at the greatest risk from a North Korean nuclear attack, and such an operation could easily cost millions of lives, including citizens of those countries and US troops stationed in Asia.

Thae's testimony fits with what experts have told Business Insider: The focus of North Korea's nuclear program has shifted from a bargaining chip — something it could trade away for concessions from the international community — to an insurance policy.

Thae stressed that "Kim Jong Un is a person who did not even hesitate to kill his uncle and a few weeks ago, even his half-brother ... So, he is a man who can do anything to remove [anyone in] his way."

Trump is due to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week, and he has made clear his intentions to talk about North Korea.

SEE ALSO: The US has been fundamentally wrong on North Korea for decades — and now it may be too late

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The world may have to learn to live with a nuclear North Korea

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kim jong un congressNorth Korea has been on a long march to acquire a usable nuclear weapon. Since 2011, when Kim Jong-un replaced his father at the head of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the pace of that march has quickened markedly.

Contrary to claims made by Nikki Halley, the new US ambassador to the UN, North Korea’s leader is not crazy – he has decidedly rational motives. Kim wants nuclear weapons to provide security from a world that he believes threatens North Korea’s existence.

So far, North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests – in 2006, 2009, 2013 and two in 2016. The decision to acquire nuclear weapons was initially prompted by the perception that without such a deterrent, North Korea risked Iraq’s fate: invasion and regime change.

Although North Korea has one of the largest militaries in the world – its army alone has more than 1 million soldiers – it is an antiquated fighting force whose principal advantage is its proximity to South Korea. Its ability to win a fight against a technologically sophisticated opponent is widely questioned. Nuclear weapons offset that weakness markedly.

An independent nuclear capacity would also reduce the country’s dependence on China. Beijing has long believed that North Korea is a useful buffer between it and an American-allied South Korea. Pyongyang realises, however, that were Beijing to change its attitude then it would find itself dangerously exposed.

North Korea perceives it is isolated in a world that is hostile to its existence. However loathsome the regime may be and however badly it misallocates resources to bolster the ruling elite, the reason for acquiring nuclear weapons is entirely rational: they are a vital means for North Korea to protect itself.

Kim has made the acquisition of nuclear weapons a core priority. It is central to government propaganda, figures prominently in nationalist iconography, and indeed the country’s nuclear standing is now enshrined in the constitution.

Most analysts believe North Korea has not yet mastered all three parts of the "nuclear trinity" required to make a usable weapon. This entails first developing a controlled nuclear explosion. The second is miniaturising and hardening that technology so it can work reliably while attached to a means of delivery. The final step is an accurate and reliable delivery system, such as a ballistic missile.

North Korea definitely has the first step and is getting close to both the second and third steps. Barring either a change in heart from the regime about its nuclear ambition or some kind of effective international intervention, North Korea is very likely to have a functioning nuclear weapon within a few years – if not sooner.

The acceleration of the nuclear program – three tests since 2013 compared with two tests between 2006 and 2012 – reflects most obviously the higher priority Kim has placed on it.

north korea

Development of missile technology – the third step in the nuclear trinity – has also increased in tempo, with more than 20 tests since January 2016. The recent acceleration is an attempt not just to "sprint" to the finish but also to take advantage of the sense of uncertainty in the region.

North Korea’s more adventurous tendencies are most effectively kept in check when the US and China are able to align their interests and policies. That has most assuredly not been the case over the past year or so.

During his "reassurance tour", US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson declared that the old policies toward North Korea had failed– and "everything was on the table". Many interpreted this as a new appetite for strategic risk from the incoming administration.

As with other aspects of America’s Asia policy, Tillerson was light on detail about what new approach Washington might pursue. One assumes it was a major point of debate in Seoul and Beijing. But speculation abounds that pre-emptive attacks may be being considered more seriously than in the past.

The problem with managing North Korea’s nuclear ambition is that there are so few options, and none of them are appealing. As an isolated economy that cares little for international public opinion there are precious few carrots and sticks.

Rex Tillerson

Sanctions have had some effect, but they largely punish the population and not the regime. And they are regularly flouted by China on an opportunistic basis.

Due to the compressed geography of the peninsula, military action would come at a heavy price – North Korea would retaliate by unleashing massive force on South Korea. Seoul is within 60 kilometres of the border with North Korea; pre-emption would be extraordinarily risky.

North Korea will be the most pressing issue at this week’s Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit. What can be done? There are three main options.

The first is to somehow convince North Korea to step back from its nuclear ambitions, possibly using the stalled Six-Party Talks framework. Given how important it has become to the leadership, both as a security goal and as a sense of national purpose and identity, this seems highly unlikely.

Many once assumed North Korea had started down the nuclear path as an elaborate means to receive international aid. That is, it didn’t actually want them as such, but sought them as a means to extort international financial support. This no longer appears to be the case, if it ever was.

The second option is to coerce North Korea into giving them up. This is equally fraught.

Not only is the risk of major war significant, but even short of war, more targeted and better-enforced sanctions seem unlikely to halt the run to the finish line.

The third and least-worst of the options is a tried and tested policy but one that is politically unsavoury. That is, to engage with the regime, bilaterally or in the Six-Party mode. The aim here would be to retard but probably not prevent its nuclear weapon development while devising ways of learning to live with a nuclear North Korea.

Well-managed deterrence can produce a more stable strategic environment in northeast Asia than has existed in recent years. Engagement could also lead to reduced tension, greater stability and possibly even economic reform in North Korea.

Of one thing we can be sure: North Korea acts rationally, and the one outcome above all it wants to avoid is its own demise.

SEE ALSO: North Korea says it's not afraid of US threat of military strike

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RETIRED GENERAL: A large-scale military strike on North Korea 'may be the only option left'

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Jack Keane

President Donald Trump's first choice for secretary of defense says the US may only have one option for dealing with North Korea — a large-scale military strike.

“A pre-emptive strike against launch facilities, underground nuclear sites, artillery and rocket response forces and regime leadership targets may be the only option left on the table," Keane told The Times of London. "We are rapidly and dangerously moving towards a military option.”

Keane, who is said to be close to Trump, declined the role of secretary of defense offered to him by the president, citing the recent death of his wife

Keane's statement, that a military strike, which several experts have told Business Insider would involve an unthinkable number of civilian casualties, echoes sentiments from Trump in a recent interview with the Financial Times

Ahead of his meeting with Xi Jinping, the President of North Korea's biggest backer, China, Trump took a hard line on North Korea, saying "China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won't," adding that "if China is not going to solve North Korea, we will."

As North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs reach the stage where they need frequent and detectable testing, Trump and his top officials have repeatedly stressed military strikes as an option.

In particular, the type of strike proposed by Keane would require a massive air campaign to strike literally hundreds of targets across the mountainous, densely-wooded country while defending Seoul against artillery fire and nuclear missile salvos. 

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervises a ballistic rocket launching drill of Hwasong artillery units of the Strategic Force of the KPA in an undated photo. 


KCNA/via REUTERS

Of course, other pundits have proposed options besides military strikes, such as having unconditional talks with the North Koreans, or suspending or limiting the annual Foal Eagle military exercises between South Korea and the US, which Pyongyang finds provocative.

However, Keane's statements to The Times indicate that he's lost faith in diplomacy as a tool: “Our last three presidents spanning over 20 years have failed to stop the North Korean nuclear program," he said.

For now, the world awaits Trump's meeting with China's Xi, in what Trump has painted as a decisive conversation in determining the fate of the Kim regime. 

SEE ALSO: For Trump to force China's hand against North Korea, he may need to convince them he's a madman

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Rex Tillerson's terse statement on North Korea's latest missile launch may be a turning point

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Rex Tillerson NATO

SEOUL, South Korea — The response of America's chief diplomat to North Korea's latest missile launch was an abrupt departure from the usual — which may be a turning point, analysts in Asia say.

The statement from US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson totaled 23 words: "North Korea launched yet another intermediate range ballistic missile. The United States has spoken enough about North Korea. We have no further comment."

While Tillerson's statement was unusually short and vague, experts in South Korea and Japan saw it as a sign of consistency on how the US under President Donald Trump will deal with North Korea as it speeds up its nuclear weapon and missile developments.

North Korea with its missile launches probably wants to create attention and use it as leverage for concessions, but Tillerson with his statement has sent a stern message that the US wouldn't be a party to it, South Korean experts said.

"It seems Tillerson purposefully issued a short statement to send a tough signal," said Kim Sung-han, a professor at Seoul's Korea University and a former South Korean deputy foreign minister. "He is making it clear that, no matter what North Korea does, the United States won't commit to direct negotiations unless Pyongyang shows real willingness for disarmament."

Bong Youngshik, a researcher at Yonsei University's Institute for North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Tillerson's statement would have also been aimed at China ahead of President Xi Jinping's first meeting with Trump later this week in Florida.

Trump is likely to urge China's leader to take up stronger role in pressuring the North to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and Tillerson's statement is a way of stressing it's time for action on North Korea, not just talk, Bong said.

Tillerson also might stop making routine statements after every North Korean provocation or missile launch, Bong said.

"It is what it is," Bong said. "There's really no need for Tillerson to react every time when North Korea does something. The United States has moved on and is now trying to resolve problem through a larger scale, such as the summit with China shows."

While Trump and his top policymakers continue their tough talk on the North Korean issue, it's unclear such rhetoric would be enough to effectively influence North Korea and China, Pyongyang's only major ally.

Donald Trump

Every North Korean nuclear test and missile launch reminds the US and its allies of the limited options they have on Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.

A military strike on the North's nuclear or missile facilities risks triggering a devastating war that could quickly kill hundreds of thousands. The effect of further sanctions is questionable as North Korea puts the survival of its ruling elite before the well-being of its struggling populace and already is one of the most heavily penalized places on earth. Renewing negotiations with Pyongyang would require trust that it won't pocket aid and renege on any promises.

Tillerson in a visit to China last month declared an end to the Obama administration's "strategic patience" policy to wait out Pyongyang until it caves and decides to denuclearize, but the Trump administration has yet to reveal any meaningfully different approach.

Narushige Michishita, an expert from Tokyo's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said Trump's efforts to "sound scary" wouldn't work with Pyongyang and Beijing if he failed to back his words with action.

"The Trump administration's credibility will be undermined if it fails," he said.

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Associated Press writer Ken Moritsugu in Tokyo contributed to this report.

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The 'clock has now run out': North Korea is increasingly a focus of the US-China meeting

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Rex Tillerson NATO

WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House is talking in more urgent terms about North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons, as President Donald Trump's talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping approach. One senior administration official warned that the "clock has now run out" on Pyongyang.

Trump and Xi will huddle Thursday and Friday at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, a venue chosen to give the summit a more informal feel. White House officials said Tuesday that trade and security would be high on the new American president's agenda, including pushing China to exert more economic pressure on North Korea.

Speaking at a White House business forum Tuesday, Trump called North Korea a "humanity problem." A White House official later said "all options are on the table" for the U.S., though the official would not say what steps Trump was willing to take to curb Pyongyang's pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the waters off its east coast on Wednesday, U.S. and South Korean officials said, in a reminder of the simmering tensions on the Korean peninsula.

Like many nations, China is still grappling with Trump's mercurial nature after the relative transparency and predictability of the bilateral relationship under Barack Obama. Both during his campaign and after his victory, Trump complained repeatedly about China's allegedly unfair trade practices, its perceived lack of assistance in reining in North Korea and its drive to cement control over the South China Sea.

Some analysts believe Xi might be willing to hand Trump a symbolic victory on trade to put a positive spin on the meeting.

"Xi probably can't accommodate Trump on sovereignty and security issues, but he has a lot of leeway on economics," said Robert Sutter, a China expert at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

north korea

Yet even if Xi is able to offer Trump deliverables, he will still have to deal with "a restless U.S. president valuing unpredictability and seeking advantage for his agenda going forward," Sutter said.

Trump was seen as moving trade even more to the forefront when he signed a pair of executive orders Friday focused on reducing the trade deficit. Coupled together, the orders appeared to be a symbolic shot at China, which accounted for the vast bulk — $347 billion — of last year's $502 billion trade deficit.

While aides insisted the timing was coincidental, the administration touted the moves as evidence of an aggressive but analytical approach to closing a yawning trade gap that is largely due to the influx of goods from China.

Still, Trump told the Financial Times newspaper that during his meeting with Xi, he doesn't "want to talk about tariffs yet, perhaps the next time we meet." A second White House official said Tuesday that the topic may come up, though there was not expected to be any resolution.

The officials would only discuss the upcoming summit on the condition of anonymity in order to avoid pre-empting the president.

Looming over the visit will be North Korea's nuclear provocations. China continues to oppose the tough measures demanded of it to address the issue, fearing a collapse of the Pyongyang regime would bring a crush of refugees and possibly U.S. and South Korean troops on its border.

north korea

Trump told the Financial Times the U.S. is prepared to act alone if China does not take a tougher stand against North Korea's nuclear program.

"China has great influence over North Korea," he said. "And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won't. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don't it won't be good for anyone."

Add to the mix the issue of the South China Sea, where Beijing has built and armed man-made islands despite the concerns of neighboring countries; and Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy that China claims as its own territory, and which some in Trump's administration would like to see in a stronger relationship with the U.S.

Despite such divisions, Beijing seems committed to establishing a positive relationship between the two leaders.

"It is fundamental for them to improve understanding between each other," said Xiong Zhiyong, a professor at Peking University's School of International Relations. "Both sides have shown their willingness to cooperate and they are expected to make a commitment for cooperation."

China, Xiong said, realizes that Trump "is a leader with a strong personality."

The White House said Trump and Xi would hold meetings and a dinner on Thursday, then gather again Friday for more discussions and a working lunch. First lady Melania Trump and Xi's wife, famed songstress Peng Liyuan, plan to attend the dinner.

As personalities, Xi and Trump are a study in contrasts. A lifelong Communist Party apparatchik and son of a former vice premier, Xi has built his career with a cautious approach, avoiding controversial reforms and rarely speaking out in ways that would distract from his core message. His nearly five years as head of the ruling party have been defined by a campaign to achieve the "Chinese dream" of increasing prosperity while tackling endemic corruption.

Still, outwardly cordial relations with U.S. presidents are also a longstanding Chinese tradition, in recognition of the importance of the bilateral relationship. Xi had taken pains to appear at ease in the company of Obama, avoiding the rancor that characterized the relationship between the American leader and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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Bodeen reported from Beijing. Associated Press writer Vivian Salama contributed to this report from Washington.

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Follow Bodeen at http://twitter.com/cbodeen and Pace at http://twitter.com/jpaceDC

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How the US could prevent a North Korean nuclear strike — according to a former Marine and cyberwarfare expert

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Concerns over a nuclear strike from North Korea are growing, but the US may already have a plan to stop an attack at the last minute. David Kennedy, a former Marine and intelligence specialist, explains how we may be able to defend the country by hacking North Korea's missiles.

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If Trump wants to take military action against North Korea, he may have to do it this month

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donald trump

President Donald Trump has made it very clear that when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, one topic will tower above the rest: North Korea's nuclear posturing.

But Trump, whose administration has gone further than any before it in stressing the potential for a military strike on North Korea, may be running out of time to determine North Korea's fate on his own terms.

As North Korea continues to test nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, the US nears a "point of no return," Omar Lamrani, a senior military analyst at Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis firm, told Business Insider.

Essentially, once North Korea's military perfects an intercontinental ballistic missile that can strike the US mainland, the US would no longer be able to launch a preemptive military attack without fear of casualties at home, and it may then consider recognizing North Korea's Kim Jong Un for the first time as a legitimate world leader.

But perfecting an ICBM could take years, and South Korean politics could freeze Trump out of the conversation long before then.

"If the Trump administration is hell-bent on significantly stepping up pressure on China and North Korea, it's going to have a serious problem," Joel Wit, a former State Department diplomat who cofounded 38North, a website that brings together experts on North Korea, told Business Insider.

That problem's name is Moon Jae-in, a liberal South Korean human-rights lawyer who is favored to win the country's May 9 presidential election.

"He is going to pursue a very different approach from President Park," Wit said, referring to Park Guen-hye, South Korea's conservative former president who was recently impeached and arrested after a bizarre influence-peddling scheme came to light.

Wit said the normally ironclad alliance between the US and South Korea could be rocked by a reversal by Moon on policy toward North Korea. Moon is expected to pursue some kind of diplomacy with North Korea, a strategy that has been attempted previously in the past-quarter century to no success.

Pukguksong-2 north korea missile

This couldn't contrast any more with public stances from officials in the Trump administration that the"clock has now run out" on Pyongyang and"the United States has spoken enough about North Korea."

Wit said the clash in objectives for North Korea would create "problems that the Chinese can take advantage of," further relegating the US to the sidelines without the North making a single concession.

So if Trump can't convince Xi he's on the brink of war with North Korea and muscle out some concessions, he's looking at about a one-month window in which he could act unilaterally, before possible responses go from bad to worse.

SEE ALSO: For Trump to force China's hand against North Korea, he may need to convince them he's a madman

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North Korea: The US strike on Syria was 'unforgivable'

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kim jong un

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Saturday U.S. missile strikes against a Syrian airfield on Friday were "an unforgivable act of aggression" that showed its decision to develop nuclear weapons was "the right choice a million times over."

The response by the North's foreign ministry, carried by the official KCNA news agency, was the first since U.S. warships in the Mediterranean Sea launched dozens of missiles at a Syrian air base which the Pentagon says was involved in a chemical weapons attack earlier in the week.

Diplomatically isolated North Korea considers Syria a key ally.

(Reporting by Jack Kim and Ju-min Park; editing by Alexander Sith)

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US Navy strike group to move toward Korean peninsula, US official says

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FILE PHOTO - U.S. Navy F18 fighter jets are parked on the deck of aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson during a routine exercise in South China Sea, March 3, 2017. REUTERS/Erik De Castro

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A U.S. Navy strike group will be moving toward the western Pacific Ocean near the Korean peninsula, a U.S. official told Reuters on Saturday, as concerns grow about North Korea's advancing weapons program.

Earlier this month North Korea tested a liquid-fueled Scud missile which only traveled a fraction of its range.

The strike group, called Carl Vinson, includes an aircraft carrier and will make its way from Singapore toward the Korean peninsula, according to the official, who was not authorized to speak to the media and requested anonymity.

"We feel the increased presence is necessary," the official said, citing North Korea's worrisome behavior.

National security adviser H.R. McMaster echoed the sentiment, saying on Sunday that the US' decision was a "prudent" reaction to what they deem provocative behavior on North Korea's part. 

"It's prudent to do it, isn't it?" McMaster said, adding that "This is a rogue regime that is now a nuclear-capable regime, and President Xi and President Trump agreed that that is unacceptable, that what must happen is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

This year North Korean officials, including leader Kim Jong Un, have repeatedly indicated an intercontinental ballistic missile test or something similar could be coming, possibly as soon as April 15, the 105th birthday of North Korea's founding president and celebrated annually as "the Day of the Sun."

Earlier this week U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Florida, where Trump pressed his counterpart to do more to curb North Korea's nuclear program.

Trump's national security aides have completed a review of U.S. options to try to curb North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. These include economic and military measures but lean more toward sanctions and increased pressure on Beijing to rein in its reclusive neighbor.

Although the option of pre-emptive military strikes on North Korea is not off the table, the review prioritizes less-risky steps and de-emphasizes direct military action.

(Reporting by Idrees Ali; Editing by Richard Chang)

SEE ALSO: North Korea: The US strike on Syria was 'unforgivable'

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XI TO TRUMP: China is willing to work with the US to end North Korea's nuclear weapons program — but wants a peaceful solution

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Donald Trump Xi Jinping

BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping told President Donald Trump in a phone call Wednesday that Beijing was willing to work with Washington on ending North Korea's nuclear weapons program but wanted a peaceful solution.

Xi's comments come after the US president tweeted that China should do more on the issue Washington sees as an increasingly urgent threat, or the US would go it alone.

The call, brief details of which were released by the Chinese foreign ministry, also come as tensions have risen with the deployment of a US aircraft carrier to the area and the conducting of the biggest-ever US-South Korea military exercises.

Xi told Trump that China insisted on peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and wanted to find a solution to the problem through peaceful means.

"China insists on realizing the denuclearization of the peninsula ... and is willing to maintain communication and coordination with the American side over the issue on the peninsula," Xi was quoted as saying by the state broadcaster CCTV and other official media outlets.

The two leaders spoke Tuesday night Washington time.

Earlier Tuesday, Trump tweeted that he tried to persuade Xi to put pressure on North Korea in exchange for a good trade deal with the U.S.

"I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!" Trump tweeted.

In a second tweet he wrote: "North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A."

Trump and other US officials have repeatedly called on China to leverage its status as North Korea's biggest economic partner and source of food and fuel aid to force Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

China responds that it is in full compliance with sanctions enacted under UN Security Council resolutions and in February, suspended imports of coal from North Korea — a key source of foreign currency for Kim Jong Un's hard-line Communist regime.

However, Beijing also says it will not countenance measures that could bring about a collapse of the regime that could release a flood of refugees across its border, destabilize northeast Asia, and result in a US-friendly government taking power in Pyongyang.

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China appears to be making a key concession on North Korea

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Donald Trump Xi Jinping

Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to be on board with the US when it comes to North Korea's nuclear program.

The Chinese leader said his country"insists on realizing the denuclearization of the peninsula ... and is willing to maintain communication and coordination with the American side over the issue on the peninsula," after a call with President Donald Trump on Tuesday.

Beyond words however, China seems to be making another move that underscores its interest in bringing Pyongyang to heel.

On April 7, Beijing's customs authorities issued an official order directing trading companies to return North Korean coal cargos, according to Reuters. That order came after the late-February ban on coal imports from Pyongyang, which was issued in response to North Korea's missile tests.

Days later, a dozen North Korea ships sailed home from Chinese ports, leaving 2 million metric tons of coal stranded in Chinese ports.

The rejection of North Korean coal marks a shift in China's dealings with its isolated neighbor. Beijing has long used the coal trade to shore up the regime in Pyongyang, which relies on coal for about 40% of its total exports.

While China has been willing to criticize Pyongyang, its past soft-peddling on sanctions and other measures against North Korea have reflected Beijing's desire to balance the need for stability on the Korean Peninsula with moves to temper North Korea's military ambitions.

North Korea China coal imports

In March 2016, weeks after the UN applied a new set of sanctions, Chinese shippers and traders told Reuters that they hadn't gotten any word from Beijing about curbing North Korean coal imports, and observers suggested at the time that China was pushing for or had secured an exemption for its coal purchases.

"Coal is a big lever for them," Adam Cathcart, a North Korea-China specialist at the University of Leeds, told Reuters in mid-March 2016. "They're wise from the Chinese standpoint to keep some leeway (so) they're not branded as sanctions violators if a train goes from China to North Korea (carrying resources)."

"China fears that harsher sanctions may destabilize its northern neighbor, which could potentially send millions of refugees over the border," Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian wrote this week for Foreign Policy. "But recent missile tests — and growing international pressure — have only narrowed Beijing’s options."

Now, with Pyongyang's aggressive testing of missiles and Trump's hardline stance on relations with China and North Korea, Beijing appears more willing to push Kim Jong Un's regime.

china north korea

The US's threat of intervention on the Korean Peninsula was probably not the deciding factor in Beijing's change of tone on North Korea, however.

Though China was dismayed by the deployment of the US-made THAAD anti-missile system to South Korea, strategists in Beijing were likely confident the US would be hesitant to launch military action against North Korea.

Prior to Trump's meeting with Xi this month, US officials said a key goal was getting China onboard with using economic leverage against North Korea, and coal would be a central part of that.

The specter of economic retribution from the US — which has become a major source of coal for China — coupled with concerns about Pyongyang's advancing nuclear capabilities probably moved China toward a stricter stance on North Korea.

"I think that [the Chinese] are quite worried about what Trump might do in the area of trade and economics — that’s really credible," Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider earlier this month.

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China reportedly sent 150,000 troops to North Korea's border — here's how they could stop North Korea

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china military

Amid a productive phone call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese state-run media reported that 150,000 Chinese troops went to North Korea's border.

Both China and the US have pushed back on the claims of troops massing, however.

International observers fear that North Korea may conduct another nuclear test this weekend on the anniversary of the founding of Kim Jong Un's regime, but the US has broadcast loud and clear that nuclear posturing in the Korean peninsula will no longer be tolerated.

In March, Business Insider talked to Sim Tack, a North Korea expert at Stratfor, a geopolitical-analysis firm, who speculated how Chinese forces could stop North Korea's nuclear program without firing a shot.

Tack predicted China would "definitely react to and try to prevent" a US strike on North Korea. The US increasingly has touted military strikes as an option against the Kim regime, even going as far as positioning an aircraft carrier off Korea's coast.

"The overt presence of Chinese forces would dissuade the US from going into that territory because they would run the risk of inviting that larger conflict themselves," Tack said.

Chinese forces in North Korea would "be in a position to force a coup or force Kim's hand" to disarm, Tack said.

Ultimately, China, North Korea's biggest backer, would attempt "to make sure North Korea still exists and serves Chinese interests while it stops acting as a massive bullseye to the US," he added.

Kim Jong Un

In this way, China could preserve its buffer state from falling to Western influence, prevent a US military strike on its borders, and even prevent a nuclear war.

Besides its possible troop buildup, China also seems willing to apply pressure to the Kim regime in other ways. Last week, Beijing ordered its customs authorities to reject coal imports from North Korea — a big hit to the regime's wallet, since coal makes up about 40% of its total exports.

SEE ALSO: How China could stop a US strike on North Korea — without starting World War III

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2 women accused of assassinating the half-brother of North Korea's leader were taken to a Malaysian court

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Siti Aisyah kim jong nam

Kuala Lumpur (AFP) - Two women accused of assassinating the half-brother of North Korea's leader were taken to a Malaysian court in bulletproof vests on Thursday ahead of a murder trial that could see them hanged.

Indonesian Siti Aisyah, 25, and Doan Thi Huong, 28, from Vietnam, were taken to the Sepang magistrate's court located close to the airport where Kim Jong-Nam was fatally poisoned on February 13.

Prosecutors are expected to apply for the case to be transferred to an upper court, where the women would be tried for murder. If found guilty, they could face the death penalty, which is carried out by hanging in Malaysia.

Police accuse the pair of having wiped the nerve agent VX on Kim's face at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. The poison is classified as a weapon of mass destruction and banned around the world.

Rival South Korea accuses the North of masterminding the death of Kim, the estranged half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un. Pyongyang denies the accusation.

Some 100 police officers including masked special forces armed with assault rifles were deployed to secure the small court compound where the women were taken for Thursday's hearing. 

Police are still looking for four North Korean men who are suspected accomplices of the women. The four, however, are believed to have returned to Pyongyang. 

Three other North Koreans earlier described as "persons of interest", including a diplomat based in Malaysia, have been allowed to return home.

The killing sparked a diplomatic crisis between Malaysia and North Korea which saw both countries banning each other's citizens from leaving and withdrawing their ambassadors. 

The travel ban was lifted in late March after a deal was struck involving the return of Kim's body to Pyongyang. 

SEE ALSO: Suspect accused of killing Kim Jong-Nam claims to have been paid $90 for what she thought was a 'baby oil' prank

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Kim Jong Un's half brother was assassinated — here's what we know so far

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Kim Jong Un Kim Jong Nam

Kim Jong-Nam, the half-brother of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, was killed on February 13.

When news of a man getting fatally poisoned at a Kuala Lumpur airport first broke, the event caused a local stir but received relatively little attention worldwide.

Once Jong-Nam's identity surfaced a day later, interest into the mysterious death of the man who had reportedly fallen out of favour with his family and the dictatorial North Korean government became widespread.

With investigation developments coming up daily, this is what we know about the strange death so far.

The Timeline of Events:

Jong-Nam, the exiled half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was waiting for a flight to Macau at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Malaysia on Feb. 13 when two women ran up to him from behind and appeared to spray an unidentified liquid on him. 

He soon started feeling dizzy, collapsed, and died before the ambulance carrying him made it to the hospital. Japanese broadcaster Fuji TV released a CCTV video that captured the attack.

The next day, South Korean television broadcaster TV Chosunreported that the two women suspected of killing Kim Jong-Nam were North Korean operatives who fled the airport in a taxi

On Feb. 15, South Korean government officials confirmed the death and said that North Korea's government had been planning to kill him for the past 5 years. 

The Victim:

Kim Jong-Nam is the son of deceased North Korea leader Kim Jong-Il and North Korean actress Song Hye Rim. As Jong-il's illegitimate son, Jong-Nam spent an early part of his childhood living in secret with his mother's relatives in Pyongyang before leaving North Korea to study in top schools in Moscow and Geneva.

Because Kim Jong-Il's father (self-proclaimed Eternal President of the Republic Kim Il-sung) did not approve of his son's frequent mistresses, Kim Jong-Nam's maternal relatives arranged for the son to live in secret for years before coming back to North Korea. 

Upon return, Kim Jong-Nam joined the Ministry of People's Security and worked to bring restricted internet access to the country in the 1990s. As Jong-nam was Jong-il's oldest son, he was considered the favorite to take over for the leader from 1994 to 2001.

Kim Jong-Nam worked at numerous low-level governmental posts during that time, before finally falling out of favour with the North Korean government, Asia Times reports.  His father, Jong-il, accused him of turning "into a capitalist," according to an email sent to the editor of the Tokyo Shimbun by Jong-Nam. 

"After I went back to North Korea following my education in Switzerland, I grew further apart from my father because I insisted on reform and market-opening and was eventually viewed with suspicion," Jong-Nam wrote.

In May 2001, he was arrested at a Tokyo airport for trying to enter the country on a false passport from the Dominican Republic under the under the name "Pang Xiong"— translating as "fat bear" in Mandarin Chinese. He was reported to be accompanied by two women and a young boy, identifying as his son.

Jong-nam went into exile shortly after.

As of 2003, Jong-Nam split his time between Macau, Singapore and China with his six kids. But even while in exile, Kim Jong Nan gave interviews to European and Japanese press and would occasionally make critical comments about the North Korean government. Some outlets reported that this earned Jong-Nam multiple threats over the years.

"He knew his life was at risk … and he was aware his brother was after him,” an anonymous source who knew Kim Jong-Nam for more than 10 years told China Morning Press.

Kim Jong Nam

The Investigation:

After Jong-Nam's death, Malaysia officials conducted  an autopsy against the wishes of the North Korean government. Even though earlier reports claimed that Jong-Nam was stabbed with poisoned needles, the autopsy found no evidence of puncture wounds.

On Feb. 15, Malaysian police announced that it had apprehended 28-year-old Vietnamese national Doan Thi Huong. In CCTV footage from the airport attack, Huong is seen wearing a white shirt with the word "LOL."  

Over the next three days, the the Malaysian police stopped Indonesian Siti Aiysah, 25, Malaysian Muhammad Farid Bin Jalaluddin, 26, and North Korean Ri Jong Chol, 26, in connection with the murder. Chol was released on March 2 due to "insufficient evidence to charge him."

Over the last week, numerous stories about the identity and potential motives of the suspects have emerged. The police revealed that Huong worked in the entertainment business, which led to speculation about her physical similarity to a former Vietnam Idol contest.

After her arrest, Aisyah claimed that she was misled to believe that she was being filmed for a hidden-camera TV show even though the Indonesian police said that she received money to spray Kim Jong-nam with liquid. Malaysian security forces also announced that the four suspects were hired assassins who did not know each other prior to the attack.

Malaysian police have had to amp up security after someone tried to break into the morgue where Kim Jong Nam's body was being held on Wednesday.

Malaysian police also announced on Wednesday that it wanted to question North Korean embassy official Hyon Kwang Song, 44, along with other nationals Kim Uk Il, 37, and Ri Ju U, which prompted an angry response from North Korea.

Up until current plans to cancel visa-free entry, Malaysia was one of the few countries whose citizens could travel to North Korea freely and welcomed North Koreans without a visa. Some analysts have predicted that friction over the assassination and Malaysia's refusal to comply with North Korean demands regarding the investigation could lead to a significant diplomatic fallout.

Kim Jong Nam Assassin Suspect LOL

The Latest Developments

Malaysia announced that Kim Jong Nam was killed by VX nerve agent, a highly toxic substance — a single oily drop is enough to kill a person, reports BI's Dave Mosher — classified as a weapon of mass destruction by the United Nations.

Aisyah, who is still being held custody along with some of the other suspects, later said that she thought she was handling a liquid like "baby oil" to be in a prank TV show for RM400 ($90), according to Indonesia's deputy ambassador to Malaysia Andreano Erwin. On March 1, Huong and Aisyah were both formally charged with murder and appeared in court. If found guilty, both could face the death penalty.

Among widespread suspicions of North Korea's involvement in the murder, Malaysian police forces are continuing to seek explanations for the mysterious death. On Feb. 27, South Korean lawmakers said that the murder was organized by North Korea's ministry of state security and foreign ministry. On March 2, Malaysia announced that it would cancel the current visa-free status for North Korean residents.

By April 13, Huong and Aisyah were the only people in custody. Malaysian police said that all North Korean suspects fled the country in February and have likely returned to Pyongyang.  After Huong and Aisyah's lawyers said that police have not turned over the proper video camera footage and documents pertaining to their case, a judge postponed their hearing until May 30.

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The defense in the murder case involving Kim Jong Un's half-brother fears 'trial by ambush'

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Vietnamese Doan Thi Huong, who was charged with the murder of Kim Jong Nam, is escorted by police as she arrives at a Sepang court, in Malaysia April 13, 2017. REUTERS/Lai Seng Sin

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) — Handcuffed and facing the judge, two young women accused of poisoning Kim Jong Nam appeared in court Thursday as their lawyers said Malaysian police still have not handed over security camera footage and documents crucial to the defense.

Siti Aisyah, from Indonesia, and Doan Thi Huong of Vietnam are the only suspects in custody in the Feb. 13 killing of Kim, the estranged half brother of North Korea's ruler. Four North Korean suspects fled the country the day of the murder, police say.

"The accused person should not be denied her fundamental right to a fair trial," said Aisyah's attorney Gooi Soon Seng. He said he has been waiting for police to provide surveillance video and statements from three North Korean men who were questioned and released.

"Neither side may seek unfair advantage by concealing weapons behind its back. There should be no trial by ambush," Gooi said.

The judge postponed the hearing until May 30.

National police chief Khalid Abu Bakar said later Thursday that defense lawyers must apply for the evidence through the courts and that police have to get clearance from the attorney general before releasing it.

When asked about lawyers' contention that they had sent requests five times, by fax and by hand, without getting a police reply, Khalid said, "Maybe it did not reach the correct officer. ... There must be some communication breakdown somewhere."

The women are accused of smearing Kim's face with banned VX nerve agent at a crowded airport terminal in Kuala Lumpur. But they say they were duped into thinking they were playing a harmless prank for a hidden-camera show.

The women face the death penalty if convicted.

Gooi said he fears the women will become scapegoats because all the other people believed to have knowledge of the case have left the country.

The four North Koreans who flew out of Malaysia the day of the murder are believed to be back in Pyongyang. And another three who stayed inside their country's embassy in Kuala Lumpur to avoid questioning by police were allowed to fly home late last month after Malaysia struck a surprise deal with Pyongyang to ease tensions.

Kim Jong Un Kim Jong Nam

Malaysian police have said they questioned the three men and found no grounds to hold them. But Gooi said Thursday that at least one of those three men — identified by police as Ri Ji U and known to Aisyah as "James"— was key to her defense.

"This amounts to a miscarriage of justice," Gooi said of Malaysia's decision to allow the men to leave the country. "They (the defendants) are already scapegoats."

Khalid dismissed Gooi's claim.

"They can say anything they like but we have a case with us. I am just waiting for the North Koreans to send back the four (suspects) to us," he said.

Gooi told The Associated Press on Wednesday that James recruited Aisyah in early January to star in his video prank shows. Over the course of several days, he had her rub oil or pepper sauce on a victim's face, "from forehead downwards," which he would film on his phone, the lawyer said.

They practiced at malls, hotels and airports, he said. Aisyah was paid $100-$200 for each prank and hoped the income would allow her to stop working as a social escort, Gooi said.

Gooi said Aisyah flew to Cambodia in late January, where James introduced her to Hong Song Hac, one of four North Korean suspects who left Malaysia on the day of the murder. Hong had introduced himself as Chang, a Chinese who produces video prank shows for the Chinese market, he said.

Siti Aisyah1

Gooi said Hong asked Aisyah to do several more pranks at the Kuala Lumpur airport a few days before Kim was attacked. He said Aisyah met Hong at the airport on the day of the killing, and that Hong identified Kim to Aisyah and allegedly put the poison on her hand.

Malaysia never directly accused North Korea of carrying out the attack, but speculation is rampant that Pyongyang directed a hit on a long-exiled member of its ruling elite.

Tran Huy Hoang, a cousin of the Vietnamese suspect, said she is doing well in prison and had even gained weight.

"The family and many Vietnamese people believe that she is innocent," he said outside court Thursday. "We believe she was cheated and we hope that the truth will come out."

SEE ALSO: Kim Jong Un's half brother was assassinated — here's what we know so far

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US and North Korea put on dueling shows of air power as nuclear test looms

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f 15 elephant walk

North Korea's dictator Kim Jong Un watched his air force exhibit their air-strike accuracy mere hours before a snap US military exercise flew dozens of fighter jets in dueling displays of airpower on Thursday.

South Korea's Yonhap News reported North Korea's "target-striking contest," which reportedly pleased the dictator, while Fox News broke the story about the US's massive elephant walk of F-15s, helicopters, and tankers.

But while North Korea's air display may have been a show, its reported plans to test a nuclear warhead on Saturday, the anniversary of its founding, isn't being taken lightly.

The US has sent their USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier to the Korean peninsula as tensions flare — a move the North Koreans have condemned as "reckless."

As the two sides flex their muscles in a lopsided contest, it's China — North Korea's biggest economic and political backer — that may hold the keys to deescalating the conflict.

"Military force cannot resolve the issue," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Reuters in Beijing.

Donald Trump Xi Jinping

At a press conference on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump suggested that he'd pressured China into cutting off support for North Korea and to force the rogue regime to denuclearize.

China is responsible for a whopping 85% of North Korea's external trade and supplying a similar amount of its energy imports, but Beijing has never fully used this to get the Kim regime to drop its arms program.

Now, as the US increasingly talks of using military force against North Korea, China has finally signaled a new willingness to act.

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North Korean official blames Trump for rising tensions, says situation is in a 'vicious cycle'

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PYONGYANG, North Korea (AP) — North Korea's vice foreign minister told The Associated Press on Friday that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is now in a "vicious cycle," and that Pyongyang won't "keep its arms crossed" in the face of a pre-emptive strike by US.

In an exclusive interview with the AP in Pyongyang on Friday, Vice Minister Han Song Ryol also blamed President Donald Trump for raising tensions, saying that his "aggressive" tweets were "making trouble."

Tensions are deepening as the U.S. has sent an aircraft carrier to waters off the peninsula and is conducting its biggest-ever joint military exercises with South Korea. Pyongyang, meanwhile, recently launched a ballistic missile and some experts say it could conduct another nuclear test at virtually anytime.

Trump added to the growing war of words with a tweet on Tuesday that said the North is "looking for trouble." He added that if China doesn't do its part to rein in Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, the U.S. can handle it.

Many North Korea watchers believe North Korea could have a viable nuclear warhead and a ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States' mainland on Trump's watch as president — within the next few years.

Outwardly, there are few signs of concern in North Korea despite the political back and forth. Instead, the country is gearing up for its biggest holiday of the year, the 105th anniversary of the birth of the late Kim Il Sung, the country's founder and leader Kim Jong Un's grandfather.

The Saturday anniversary may provide the world with a look at some of that arsenal. Expectations are high the North may put its newest missiles on display during a military parade that could be held to mark the event.

At the same time, speculation is growing that Pyongyang may be close to conducting more nuclear or missile tests, despite a raft of international sanctions punishing it over its nuclear weapons program.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned Thursday that North Korea may be capable of firing a missile loaded with sarin nerve gas toward Japan, as international concern mounted that a missile or nuclear test by the authoritarian state could be imminent.

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CHINA: 'Conflict could break out at any moment' over North Korea

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Kim Jong Un

BEIJING — A conflict over North Korea could break out "at any moment," China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, said Friday, warning there would be "no winner" in any war as tensions soar with the US.

The sharp language came after President Donald Trump said the North Korea problem "will be taken care of," as speculation mounts that the reclusive state could be preparing another nuclear or missile test.

"Lately, tensions have risen ... and one has the feeling that a conflict could break out at any moment," Wang said. "If a war occurs, the result is a situation in which everybody loses and there can be no winner."

Whichever side provoked a conflict "must assume the historic responsibility and pay the corresponding price," he said in a joint press conference with his French counterpart, Jean-Marc Ayrault.

Trump has sent an aircraft-carrier-led strike group to the Korean Peninsula to press his point, one of a series of signals that indicate his willingness to shake up foreign-policy strategy.

The US military on Thursday dropped the biggest nonnuclear bomb it possesses on Afghanistan, targeting a complex used by the Islamic State group.

Trump also flexed his military muscle last week by ordering cruise-missile strikes on a Syrian air base the US believed was the origin of a chemical-weapons attack on civilians in a town in northern Syria.

The moves are seen as an implicit warning to North Korea that Washington is not afraid to use force.

Trump has repeatedly said he will prevent Pyongyang from its goal of developing a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile capable of reaching the mainland US.

A White House foreign-policy adviser on Friday said the US was assessing military options in response to the North's weapons programs, saying another provocative test was a question of "when" rather than "if."

Donald Trump

There are reports of activity at a nuclear test site in North Korea ahead of Saturday's 105th anniversary of the birth of the country's founder, Kim Il-Sung, which have fueled speculation it could carry out a sixth test.

But Beijing has long opposed dramatic action against Pyongyang, fearing the regime's collapse would send a flood of refugees across its borders and leave the US military on its doorstep.

"Dialogue is the only possible solution," Wang said.

Any US strike on North Korea could prompt retaliation against allies or US forces in South Korea or Japan.

But there are few good diplomatic or economic options for the Trump administration.

The North is already under multiple sets of United Nations sanctions over its nuclear and ballistic-missile programs, and it appears to see these programs as insurance against regime change.

Rattled by Trump's behavior, Beijing — Pyongyang's sole major ally and economic lifeline — has adopted a tougher line against its neighbor, including suspending coal imports from the country for the remainder of the year.

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China experts: North Korea not on war footing, fighting unlikely

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kim jong un

PYONGYANG, North Korea (AP) — Chinese experts see little immediate possibility of hostilities breaking out between the US and North Korea, but say Beijing will respond harshly to any further North Korean nuclear tests.

Director of Jilin University's Institute of Northeast Asian Studies Gui Rui says President Donald Trump's domestic troubles should prevent him taking such action, while North Korea doesn't appear to be on a war footing.

Gui says although the tension on the Korean Peninsula is high, it's not high to the point of having an imminent war.

He says another nuclear test would invite tougher measures from Beijing, possibly including new restrictions on Chinese companies' investments in North Korea and cuts in the number of Chinese tourists allowed to visit.

 

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Mike Pence is heading to South Korea as North Korea tensions heat up

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FILE PHOTO: U.S. Vice President Mike Pence arrives for the swearing-in ceremony of Judge Neil Gorsuch as an Associate Supreme Court Justice in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, U.S., April 10, 2017.  REUTERS/Joshua Roberts /File Photo

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Vice President Mike Pence will travel to South Korea on Sunday in what his aides said was a sign of the U.S. commitment to its ally in the face of rising tensions over North Korea's nuclear program.

Pence's Seoul stop kicks off a long-planned 10-day trip to Asia - his first as vice president - and comes amid concerns that Pyongyang could soon conduct its sixth nuclear test.

President Donald Trump has warned against further provocations, sending an aircraft carrier group to the region as a show of force. His officials have been assessing tougher economic sanctions as well as military options to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

Pence plans to celebrate Easter with U.S. and Korean troops on Sunday before talks on Monday with acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn.

"We're going to consult with the Republic of Korea on North Korea's efforts to advance its ballistic missile and its nuclear program," a White House foreign policy adviser told reporters, previewing Pence's trip.

Pence will land in Seoul the day after North Korea's biggest national day, the "Day of the Sun." The White House has contingency plans for Pence's trip should it coincide with a another North Korean nuclear test by its leader Kim Jong Un, the adviser said.

"Unfortunately, it's not a new surprise for us. He continues to develop this program, he continues to launch missiles into the Sea of Japan," the adviser said.

"With the regime it's not a matter of if - it's when. We are well prepared to counter that," the adviser said.

Kim Jong Un

'Free and fair' trade

Pence expects to talk about the "belligerence" of North Korea at stops in Tokyo, Jakarta and Sydney, the White House adviser said.

But the need for "free and fair trade" will also be a theme, the adviser said.

Trump campaigned on an "America First" trade policy, complaining that trade partners in Asia and elsewhere had taken advantage of the United States.

One of his first acts in office was to remove the United States from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal negotiated by former President Barack Obama.

"Withdrawing from the TPP shouldn't be seen as a retreat from the region. On the contrary, our economic presence in the region is enduring," the adviser said.

On Tuesday, Pence will kick off economic talks with Japan requested by Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The discussions will focus more on setting a "framework" for future talks rather than on specific industry issues, a White House official said.

Pence will meet with business leaders at each stop, including in Jakarta, though he was not expected to wade into the weedy details of disputes between the Indonesian government and U.S. companies like mining giant Freeport-McMoRan Inc .

"We're going to discuss the business environment in Indonesia in a general sense," a White House official said.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Editing by Michael Perry)

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